8 academic probabilistic models, 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations and 10+ markets analyzed per match — to identify value bets that bookmakers prefer to hide.
Enter the match, bet type and proposed odds. You can also paste free text — our AI understands the context.
Our pipeline combines 8 models — Dixon-Coles, Bivariate Poisson, Pi-Ratings, Skellam, xG, ELO, market consensus and Monte Carlo (10,000 simulations) — to calculate true probabilities across 10+ markets.
BetAI compares odds from 5 bookmakers against its calibrated probabilities. If the odds are higher than fair value → value bet detected. On 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, Handicap, Clean Sheet and Correct Score.
Receive a complete report: confidence score (8 factors), recommendation, identified risks, optimal stake (Kelly 4 variants), 10+ markets analyzed and verified AI narrative.
Bet input
Match, odds, type
8 Probabilistic models
DC, BivarPoisson, Pi, Skellam, xG, ELO, Market, MC
Brier-weighted Ensemble
Probability fusion
7 auto checks
Mathematical consistency
Value bet detection
Edge vs bookmakers
10+ markets analyzed
Kelly + AI Verdict
Tau correction for low scores. Time-decay ξ=0.0019. The academic gold standard for 27 years.
Dixon & Coles, Royal Statistical Society
Correlates goals via λ3. Produces BTTS and Clean Sheet. Captures open matches.
Karlis & Ntzoufras, 2003
4 ratings per team. Beat all models at the 2017 Soccer Prediction Challenge.
Soccer Prediction Challenge, 2017
Models goal difference. Produces Handicap probabilities.
Wilkens, 2026 — +10% ROI
Multi-recency windows (3/6/10 matches). Measures chance quality, not luck.
Anzer & Bauer, 2021
Dynamic ratings with home advantage (+65 pts). Captures strength evolution.
Hvattum & Arntzen, 2010
Fair probabilities from 5 bookmakers. Detects sharp money (>5% movement).
Constantinou, 2013
10,000 simulations per match. Produces Over/Under, BTTS, Correct Score with 95% CI.
Standard Poisson method
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